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The Run-In
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The spreadsheet is out as we approach the business end of the season.
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By:
Eric Hitchmo
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02/03/2025
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This article has been viewed 676 times.
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It’s a rare thing to be able to sit back and enjoy the sight of a league table being a Barnet fan. The last three years however have largely been a tale of upward momentum and joy and has been a building process into the formidable National League force that we are today. Perhaps, not for much longer as we reach the business of the season in remarkable shape at the top.
Even the most optimistic of Barnet fans couldn’t have expected a 12-point return from four games against Solihull (H), York (H), Rochdale (A) and Oldham (A). But we got them, and we scored 13 goals in the process while conceding just two. If it hadn’t been apparent already, this is a special team that we see so rarely in black and amber that you almost have to pinch yourself to believe it.
Rochdale and Oldham looked two particularly tough games on paper, both chasing the playoffs. But we’ve won them 4-0 and 3-0. Absurd. I’d have snapped your hand off for four points from those two. Perhaps more importantly though it underlines the transition this team has taken in the last few months.
On crap pitches, we adapted our style to suit and had the players to do so. In recent past we’ve been guilty perhaps of being too one-dimensional and playing the same way regardless of what was in front of us. Not any more, we’ve learned our lessons and have the mentality and the grit to not only grind results out but win these games handsomely. Take Oldham for example. They were a niggly, nasty team and got in our faces. That’s the sort of game we would’ve lost last season (and we did) because they would have out-bastarded us. But we adapted, we were tenacious, and we had the quality to win and win well. The goals from Brunt and Stead were exceptional, by the way.
Seemingly no record is safe. If things go at this rate, total points in a season, league goals in a season, unbeaten records and so on are all at threat. Currently we are 20 (T-W-E-N-T-Y) league games unbeaten. We’ve not done that since 1977, and think of the great teams we’ve had in that time. Six consecutive clean sheets away from home in the league is a new club record, and the previous record of five was only ever done once. In 1907.
As such we are now at the point of the season where those of us who enjoy a spreadsheet can look over the run-in with glee and try and predict where the season might end up. Last year’s spreadsheet was a race for second/third which involved many teams, but this year we have a more scaled-down effort with the three-horse race for the title. So let’s take a look first at the fixtures for ourselves, York City and Forest Green Rovers.
| BARNET |  | | YORK CITY |  | | FOREST GREEN ROVERS |  | | | | | Played | 35 | Played | 34 | Played | 34 | | Points | 76 | Points | 70 | Points | 67 | | | | | Yeovil Town | H | 04/03/2025 | Altrincham | H | 04/03/2025 | FC Halifax Town | A | 04/03/2025 | | Dagenham and Redbridge | H | 08/03/2025 | Forest Green Rovers | H | 08/03/2025 | York City | A | 08/03/2025 | | Woking | A | 15/03/2025 | Yeovil Town | A | 15/03/2025 | Sutton United | H | 11/03/2025 | | Altrincham | A | 22/03/2025 | Braintree Town | A | 22/03/2025 | Southend United | H | 15/03/2025 | | Gateshead | H | 29/03/2025 | Rochdale | A | 25/03/2025 | AFC Fylde | A | 22/03/2025 | | Braintree Town | A | 05/04/2025 | Wealdstone | H | 29/03/2025 | Solihull Moors | H | 29/03/2025 | | Wealdstone | H | 12/04/2025 | AFC Fylde | A | 05/04/2025 | Wealdstone | A | 05/04/2025 | | Eastleigh | H | 18/04/2025 | Aldershot Town | H | 12/04/2025 | Gateshead | H | 12/04/2025 | | Sutton United | A | 21/04/2025 | Gateshead | A | 18/04/2025 | Yeovil Town | A | 18/04/2025 | | Aldershot Town | H | 26/04/2025 | Oldham Athletic | H | 21/04/2025 | Tamworth | H | 21/04/2025 | | AFC Fylde | A | 05/05/2025 | Solihull Moors | H | 26/04/2025 | Oldham Athletic | H | 26/04/2025 | | | | Eastleigh | A | 05/05/2025 | Hartlepool United | A | 05/05/2025 |
If we take an average points total of the National League winners over the last ten seasons, excluding COVID, it comes out around 96. We’ll exclude that Wrexham/Notts County outlier too as that’s just a freak. It’s been won with as low as 89 points and we won it in 2015 with 92. 96 seems about right for this season based on the current picture. If we assume that’s where we need to get to, it will require 20 points from our remaining 11 games. Six wins, two draws, three defeats. Or 5-5-1 if you prefer. Doable.
York would then have to get 27 points to beat us from their 12 games depending on goal difference (26 if they beat our GD). That would be nine wins, three defeats or 8-3-1. Some going, but certainly not insurmountable. We floored them at The Hive the other week, but they have dragged themselves off the canvas and come out swinging. Make no mistake, they are not going anywhere and they are going to take us to the wire, if we didn’t know that already. The last-minute equaliser against Halifax with ten men, the last-minute winner(s) at Maidenhead and a solid win at Hartlepool should demonstrate to us very clearly that they have the bollocks to push us all the way.
FGR have slipped of late and for them to get to 97 would require ten wins and two defeats from their 12 games or 9-3-0. That could be a stretch too far for them but they have certainly shown they are hard to beat, only losing three times all season and also have a knack of fighting until the end with several late goals of their own at crucial times. We write them off at our peril.
None of this means anything if we don’t hold up our end of the deal. If we carry on at our current points per game (PPG) then we will hit 100 points. If someone catches that then we’ll have to hold our hands up and say “fair play”, but we are nowhere near that stage yet and have to continue to perform at this high standard if we want to win the league.
We have two favourable home games coming up which look good on paper but there is no room for complacency. There is nothing to suggest that Dean Brennan and the team will allow that for a moment. We have been utterly ruthless in the last couple of months and we are going to need to continue that, because a fourth National League title is not going to be handed to us. Yeovil will be a tricky test, they certainly pushed us hard at their place, and Dagenham whilst on a shocking run of form are never a straightforward opponent. Wouldn’t it be the most Barnet thing for us to break our unbeaten records to a side near the bottom of the form table?
One useful thing to note is that York and Forest Green meet each other on the 8th March. That could go a long way to determining our fate IF we keep up our form. If we lose our next two then we could be handing over the initiative by this time next week. I know that seems unlikely, but come on this is Barnet we’re talking about here. It’s the hope that kills you.
These are nice problems to have. So while it’s gonna get bumpy from here on in as the nerves and the tension ramp up with each game that passes, we should have the belief that this team is the real deal and has the capability to do it. We have recruited brilliantly, we have shored up our previously rocky defensive line, we have goals all over the pitch and we have a manager who demands only the best from his players. Standards. Character.
I hope to be able to get back in the next couple of months for a rather special occasion, but let’s do the age-old thing and take each game as it comes starting Tuesday against Yeovil. I only hope there’s a decent enough crowd there to see it.
Bring Barnet Back
We must remember that as well as on the field we have an equally important race ahead of us off it. We need all Barnet supporters who believe in getting the club back to Barnet to register their comments of support on the Barnet Council website. The link is below.
CLICK HERE
Please take time today to add a comment if you haven’t already and encourage friends and family or anyone who has even the remotest passing interest in Barnet. You need to register on the site before you add your comment. Check your junk e-mail if you are having problems. Turn off your VPN if you have one if you are having trouble accessing as the council website doesn’t like those. We need every comment we can get to demonstrate the positive effects a new stadium can bring, not only to the club but the town, borough and community in Barnet.
We can do this!
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